Here's the Karen Read Trial-X Analysis explicitly considering only today's (June 13th) courtroom developments and their direct impact on the percentages:
- Cassian Creed
- Jun 13
- 2 min read
⚖️ Charge 1: Second-Degree Murder
Vehicle-Impact Scenario: 47% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Remains moderate due to prior evidence of taillight fragments, DNA matches, but no new vehicle-impact evidence was introduced today.
Today's trending: No new courtroom revelations specifically affecting vehicle-impact evidence today; thus, no change.
Altercation/Cover-Up Scenario: 74% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Strong probability based on prior forensic doubts and witness credibility concerns.
Today's trending: No new evidence or testimony today directly altered this scenario; therefore, no percentage change today.
Investigative Integrity Compromise: 80% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: High due to previously established misconduct by investigator Michael Proctor.
Today's trending: No new investigative misconduct information was revealed in court today; thus, percentage remains stable.
Motive Credibility: 25% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Low credibility based on prior limited motive evidence.
Today's trending: No new information regarding motive introduced today; remains unchanged.
Verdict Probability (Conviction): 8% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Low likelihood due to previously established reasonable doubt.
Today's trending: No new developments in court today significantly affected the likelihood of conviction on this charge.
⚖️ Charge 2: Manslaughter While OUI
Intoxication Evidence: 55% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Moderate due to previously established BAC evidence and ambiguity in intoxication's role.
Today's trending: No new intoxication-related testimony or evidence was presented today.
Causation Evidence: 45% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Moderate-low probability due to existing forensic doubts.
Today's trending: Today's court session provided no new insights affecting causation probability.
Scene Staging Suspicion: 78% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: High due to previously presented evidence regarding body positioning and scene conditions.
Today's trending: No new testimony or evidence about scene staging today; unchanged.
Verdict Probability (Conviction): 10% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Low likelihood remains due to existing doubts regarding causation and intoxication.
Today's trending: No new courtroom developments today directly impacted conviction probability.
⚖️ Charge 3: Leaving Scene of Personal Injury or Death
Knowledge of Incident: 40% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Moderate-low probability due to previously established ambiguity in Karen's knowledge.
Today's trending: No new evidence or testimony today regarding Karen's awareness; stable.
Scene Departure Evidence: 50% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Neutral probability due to ambiguity in Karen's actions following the event.
Today's trending: No new courtroom developments today impacting scene departure evidence; unchanged.
Verdict Probability (Conviction): 12% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Low probability due to existing uncertainties.
Today's trending: Today's proceedings did not introduce evidence affecting this charge significantly.
🎯 Final Verdict Trajectory (Today: June 13th)
Full Acquittal Probability: 54% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Remains high due to previously established reasonable doubt from prior developments.
Today's trending: No major shifts introduced today in courtroom testimony or evidence.
Hung Jury Probability: 38% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Remains substantial given prior complexities and existing divided perspectives.
Today's trending: Today brought no significant new uncertainties or clarifications.
Full Conviction Probability: 8% (⏺️ 0%)
Why this percentage: Low due to prior forensic and investigative doubts already established.
Today's trending: No developments in today’s court session significantly impacted this probability.
Summary of Today's Impact (June 13th):No significant new forensic testimony, evidence, or investigative revelations were introduced in court today. Therefore, all percentages and trending remain stable and unchanged from the previously established levels.



Comments