How we get from probably guilty to reasonable doubt (Updated 5/30/25):

Cassian Creed
May 30, 2025
2 min read

Here's the updated detailed analysis for the Karen Read trial as of May 30, 2025, with current Guilt-X and Verdict-X scores and trends compared to May 29, 2025:

⚙️ Guilt-X Probability Assessment (May 30, 2025 vs. May 29, 2025):

Factor	Probability May 29	Probability May 30	Change
🚗 Vehicle Evidence Integrity	72%	72%	⏺️ 0%
📱 Digital Timeline Credibility	60%	35%	🔽 -25%
👤 Witness Credibility (McCabe)	79.5%	72%	🔽 -7.5%
🕵️‍♂️ Investigative Integrity	80%	68.75%	🔽 -11.25%
📵 Third-party (Higgins)	68%	80%	🔼 +12%
🏠 Third-party (Albert)	55%	61%	🔼 +6%
📌 Scene Staging	78%	78%	⏺️ 0%
🛣️ Vehicle-Impact Scenario	52%	47%	🔽 -5%
🥊 Altercation/Cover-Up Scenario	69%	74%	🔼 +5%
⚠️ Victim Vulnerability	80%	80%	⏺️ 0%

Overall Integrated Guilt Probability (Guilt-X):

May 29: 42%
May 30: 37% 🔽 (-5%)

📉 Trends Explanation:

Reduced Digital Timeline Credibility (-25%) due to expert testimony by defense witness Matthew DiSogra challenging the prosecution’s timeline.
Increased suspicion of third-party involvement (+12% Higgins, +6% Albert) due to strengthened third-party culpability evidence and clearer witness deception.
Vehicle-impact scenario reduced (-5%), weakening the prosecution's argument of direct vehicular impact by Karen Read.
Altercation/Cover-Up scenario increased (+5%), bolstering alternative explanations for O'Keefe's death.

🧑‍⚖️ Verdict-X Jury Simulation Forecast (May 30, 2025 vs. May 29, 2025):

Verdict Outcome	Probability May 29	Probability May 30	Change
🟢 Full Acquittal	52%	54%	🔼 +2%
🟡 Hung Jury (Mistrial)	38%	38%	⏺️ 0%
🔴 Full Conviction	10%	8%	🔽 -2%

Interpretation:

Slight increase (+2%) in the probability of Full Acquittal, now at 54%, making acquittal increasingly the most probable outcome.
Probability of a Hung Jury remains unchanged at 38%, still indicating a substantial possibility due to divided opinions on forensic evidence.
Slight decrease (-2%) in the probability of a Full Conviction, now at a minimal 8%, reflecting increasing reasonable doubt.

⚖️ Final Mathematical Interpretation:

The latest mathematical assessment supports greater reasonable doubt regarding Karen Read’s guilt. The notable reduction in timeline credibility, coupled with strengthened third-party culpability and reduced credibility of the prosecution's vehicle-impact scenario, mathematically favors the defense narrative and alternative scenarios. These adjustments indicate a clearer pathway for jurors toward acquittal or a mistrial, significantly weakening the prosecution’s case.