⚖️ Karen Read Trial: Charge-Specific Credibility & Verdict Trend Analysis

Author: Cassian Creed Updated: June 4, 2025

📊 Charge 1: Second-Degree Murder

Factor	May 28	June 3	June 4	Δ	Interpretation
Vehicle-Impact Scenario	52%	47%	47%	🔽 -5%	Doubts raised by dog bite theory & taillight testimony.
Altercation/Cover-Up Theory	68%	74%	76%	🔼 +8%	Timeline strengthened by Dr. Russell & Loughran.
Investigative Integrity	68.75%	80%	80%	🔼 +11.25%	Proctor’s firing & texts damaged trust in investigation.
Motive Credibility	Moderate	Moderate	Low	🔽 Lower	Witness: “Happy, loving” relationship; weakens motive.
Verdict Probability	15%	8%	8%	🔽 -7%	Alt scenario + weak motive = unlikely conviction.

⚖️ Charge 2: Manslaughter While OUI

Factor	May 28	June 3	June 4	Δ	Interpretation
Evidence of Intoxication	High	High	High	⏺️ 0%	BAC undisputed; causation in doubt.
Witness Credibility (McCabe)	72% (Deceptive)	79.5%	79.5%	🔼 +7.5%	Inconsistencies damaged credibility.
Third-Party Culpability	56%	68%	68%	🔼 +12%	Higgins’ phone destruction raised suspicion.
Verdict Probability	15%	8%	8%	🔽 -7%	Reasonable doubt undermines charge.

⚖️ Charge 3: Leaving Scene of Injury/Death

Factor	May 28	June 3	June 4	Δ	Interpretation
Read’s Vehicle Bump	✔️ Confirmed	✔️ Confirmed	✔️ Confirmed	⏺️ 0%	Read admits to bumping O’Keefe’s car.
Consciousness of Guilt	Moderate	High	High	🔼 Up	Read’s own statements may appear incriminating.
Jury Simulation Forecast	N/A	Guilty (12-0)	Guilty (12-0)	N/A	AI model predicts conviction.
Verdict Probability	Moderate	High	High	🔼 High	Most likely conviction—less legal burden.

🧠 Aggregate Credibility (May 28 → June 4)

Metric	May 28	June 4	Δ	Interpretation
Defense Credibility	Moderate	High	🔼 Up	Experts & timeline testimony effective.
Prosecution Credibility	Moderate	Low	🔽 Down	Investigation flaws eroded confidence.
Overall Guilt Probability	42%	37%	🔽 -5%	Rising reasonable doubt across charges.

⚖️ Verdict Forecast (as of June 4)

Charge	Conviction	Hung Jury	Full Acquittal
Second-Degree Murder	8%	38%	54%
Manslaughter (OUI)	8%	38%	54%
Leaving the Scene	High	Low	Low

🎯 Summary

• Most Likely Outcome: Acquittal on homicide charges, conviction on “leaving the scene.”

• Defense Strength: Experts, timeline, and third-party focus increased credibility.

• Prosecution Weakness: Proctor’s credibility collapse and weak motive case.

• Forecast: Split verdict highly probable.

“This case stopped being about a vehicle hitting a man. It’s now about whether a jury believes the investigation itself was the actual crime.”