⚖️ Karen Read Trial: Charge-Specific Credibility & Verdict Trend Analysis
- Cassian Creed
- Jun 5, 2025
- 2 min read
Author: Cassian Creed Updated: June 4, 2025
📊 Charge 1: Second-Degree Murder
Factor | May 28 | June 3 | June 4 | Δ | Interpretation |
Vehicle-Impact Scenario | 52% | 47% | 47% | 🔽 -5% | Doubts raised by dog bite theory & taillight testimony. |
Altercation/Cover-Up Theory | 68% | 74% | 76% | 🔼 +8% | Timeline strengthened by Dr. Russell & Loughran. |
Investigative Integrity | 68.75% | 80% | 80% | 🔼 +11.25% | Proctor’s firing & texts damaged trust in investigation. |
Motive Credibility | Moderate | Moderate | Low | 🔽 Lower | Witness: “Happy, loving” relationship; weakens motive. |
Verdict Probability | 15% | 8% | 8% | 🔽 -7% | Alt scenario + weak motive = unlikely conviction. |
⚖️ Charge 2: Manslaughter While OUI
Factor | May 28 | June 3 | June 4 | Δ | Interpretation |
Evidence of Intoxication | High | High | High | ⏺️ 0% | BAC undisputed; causation in doubt. |
Witness Credibility (McCabe) | 72% (Deceptive) | 79.5% | 79.5% | 🔼 +7.5% | Inconsistencies damaged credibility. |
Third-Party Culpability | 56% | 68% | 68% | 🔼 +12% | Higgins’ phone destruction raised suspicion. |
Verdict Probability | 15% | 8% | 8% | 🔽 -7% | Reasonable doubt undermines charge. |
⚖️ Charge 3: Leaving Scene of Injury/Death
Factor | May 28 | June 3 | June 4 | Δ | Interpretation |
Read’s Vehicle Bump | ✔️ Confirmed | ✔️ Confirmed | ✔️ Confirmed | ⏺️ 0% | Read admits to bumping O’Keefe’s car. |
Consciousness of Guilt | Moderate | High | High | 🔼 Up | Read’s own statements may appear incriminating. |
Jury Simulation Forecast | N/A | Guilty (12-0) | Guilty (12-0) | N/A | AI model predicts conviction. |
Verdict Probability | Moderate | High | High | 🔼 High | Most likely conviction—less legal burden. |
🧠 Aggregate Credibility (May 28 → June 4)
Metric | May 28 | June 4 | Δ | Interpretation |
Defense Credibility | Moderate | High | 🔼 Up | Experts & timeline testimony effective. |
Prosecution Credibility | Moderate | Low | 🔽 Down | Investigation flaws eroded confidence. |
Overall Guilt Probability | 42% | 37% | 🔽 -5% | Rising reasonable doubt across charges. |
⚖️ Verdict Forecast (as of June 4)
Charge | Conviction | Hung Jury | Full Acquittal |
Second-Degree Murder | 8% | 38% | 54% |
Manslaughter (OUI) | 8% | 38% | 54% |
Leaving the Scene | High | Low | Low |
🎯 Summary
Most Likely Outcome: Acquittal on homicide charges, conviction on “leaving the scene.”
Defense Strength: Experts, timeline, and third-party focus increased credibility.
Prosecution Weakness: Proctor’s credibility collapse and weak motive case.
Forecast: Split verdict highly probable.
“This case stopped being about a vehicle hitting a man. It’s now about whether a jury believes the investigation itself was the actual crime.”
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