⚖️ Karen Read Trial-X Forensic and Verdict Analysis of the Actual Case Components Report

Prepared by Cassian Creed | Last Updated: June 10, 2025

📆 Data Points:

• D1: May 30 – June 4, 2025 – Week of conflicting testimony, Google timestamp battle, and cross-examined expert collapse.

• D2: June 5, 2025 – Testimony from law enforcement contradicts prior statements; jury visibly reactive.

• D3: June 6, 2025 – No new testimony; legal motions argued regarding admissibility and rebuttals. Forensics held stable.

• D4: June 10, 2025 (Today) – New analysis regarding Higgins' activities at Canton PD, continued credibility erosion of digital timeline.

📊 Module Scores by Trial Day

Module	D1 (%)	D2 (%)	D3 (%)	D4 (%)	Δ (D1→D4)
PERP-X (Brian Higgins)	68.00	69.25	69.25	70.75	🔼 +2.75%
PERP-X (Brian Albert)	55.00	56.75	56.75	57.75	🔼 +2.75%
Evid-X (Taillight Integrity)	74.25	74.25	74.25	74.25	⏺ 0.00%
Witness-X (Jennifer McCabe)	79.50	79.50	79.50	79.50	⏺ 0.00%
Timeline-X (Digital Timestamp)	60.00	59.00	59.00	57.00	🔽 -3.00%
SIPN (Vehicle-Impact Scenario)	47.00	46.00	46.00	44.00	🔽 -3.00%
SIPN (Altercation Scenario)	74.00	75.25	75.25	76.50	🔼 +2.50%
Scene-X (Staging Likelihood)	78.00	78.00	78.00	78.00	⏺ 0.00%
COPM (Investigation Integrity)	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.00	⏺ 0.00%
VIC-Stack (Victim Vulnerability)	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.00	⏺ 0.00%

🔢 GUILT-X Composite Score

Date	Guilt Probability	Δ vs. D1	Interpretation
May 30–Jun 4	37.00%	—	Moderate doubt
June 5	36.00%	🔽 -1.00%	Erosion continues
June 6	36.00%	🔽 -1.00%	Stabilized below 37%
June 10	33.50%	🔽 -3.50%	Significant doubt increase

⚖️ VERDICT-X Jury Simulation

Outcome	D1 (%)	D2 (%)	D3 (%)	D4 (%)	Δ D1→D4	Comment
✅ Acquittal	54%	56%	56%	60%	🔼 +6%	Strongest probable outcome
⚖️ Hung Jury	38%	36%	36%	33%	🔽 -5%	Juror clarification continues
❌ Full Conviction	8%	8%	8%	7%	🔽 -1%	Further diminished likelihood

🗣️ Cassian Creed’s Explanation:

Today's developments (June 10, 2025) have further strengthened the defense's position. Brian Higgins' actions at Canton Police Department significantly heightened suspicions of third-party culpability, while the prosecution's digital timeline continues to lose credibility among jurors.

The updated composite guilt probability now at 33.50% demonstrates substantial and growing reasonable doubt concerning Karen Read's guilt. This directly translates to an even stronger likelihood (now 60%) of a jury returning a verdict of acquittal.

In plain language, the prosecution's case is deteriorating while the defense narrative becomes more persuasive and believable, significantly increasing Karen Read's prospects for an acquittal based on the presented evidence.