⚖️ Karen Read Trial-X Forensic and Verdict Simulation Report
- Cassian Creed
- Jun 6, 2025
- 2 min read
Prepared by Cassian Creed | Last Updated: June 6, 2025
📆 Data Points:
🔹 D1: May 30 – June 4, 2025 – Week of conflicting testimony, Google timestamp battle, and cross-examined expert collapse.
🔹 D2: June 5, 2025 – Testimony from law enforcement contradicts prior statements; jury visibly reactive.
🔹 D3: June 6, 2025 (Today) – No new testimony; legal motions argued regarding admissibility and rebuttals. Forensics held stable.
📊 Module Scores by Trial Day
Module | D1 (May 30–Jun 4) | D2 (June 5) | D3 (June 6) | Δ (D1→D3) |
PERP-X (Brian Higgins) | 68.00% | 69.25% | 69.25% | 🔼 +1.25% |
PERP-X (Brian Albert) | 55.00% | 56.75% | 56.75% | 🔼 +1.75% |
Evid-X (Taillight Integrity) | 74.25% | 74.25% | 74.25% | ⏺ 0.00% |
Witness-X (Jennifer McCabe) | 79.50% | 79.50% | 79.50% | ⏺ 0.00% |
Timeline-X (Digital Timestamp) | 60.00% | 59.00% | 59.00% | 🔽 -1.00% |
SIPN (Vehicle-Impact Scenario) | 47.00% | 46.00% | 46.00% | 🔽 -1.00% |
SIPN (Altercation Scenario) | 74.00% | 75.25% | 75.25% | 🔼 +1.25% |
Scene-X (Staging Likelihood) | 78.00% | 78.00% | 78.00% | ⏺ 0.00% |
COPM (Investigation Integrity) | 80.00% | 80.00% | 80.00% | ⏺ 0.00% |
VIC-Stack (Victim Vulnerability) | 80.00% | 80.00% | 80.00% | ⏺ 0.00% |
🔢 GUILT-X Composite Score
Date | Guilt Probability | Δ vs. D1 | Interpretation |
May 30–Jun 4 | 37.00% | — | Moderate doubt |
June 5 | 36.00% | 🔽 -1.00% | Erosion continues |
June 6 | 36.00% | 🔽 -1.00% | Stabilized below 37% |
⚖️ VERDICT-X Jury Simulation
Outcome | D1 (%) | D2 (%) | D3 (%) | Δ D1→D3 | Comment |
✅ Acquittal | 54% | 56% | 56% | 🔼 +2% | Strongest probable outcome |
⚖️ Hung Jury | 38% | 36% | 36% | 🔽 -2% | Slight juror clarification |
❌ Full Conviction | 8% | 8% | 8% | ⏺ 0% | No traction gained by prosecution |
🔍 Notes on Trial Dynamics
June 5 Testimony Highlights:
A previously cooperating officer admitted under oath that he was “uncertain” whether O'Keefe ever entered the house—a reversal from earlier confidence.
Cross-examination revealed coordination among party attendees on group chats about “keeping things straight.” No denial.
June 6 Legal Motion:
Defense filed to suppress certain prosecution rebuttals that lacked forensic support; Judge Cannone deferred ruling to Monday.
🎯 Final Assessment (as of June 6)
Karen Read’s current Guilt-X score holds at 36.00%.Mathematically, this is well below the reasonable doubt threshold.Verdict-X simulates acquittal as the most likely jury outcome if the pattern holds.
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