📂 Sullivan Siblings Disappearance — Dual‑Audience Brief (Updated 2025‑06‑09)

1️⃣ Tier 1 — Analyst Dashboard*

Module	Weight	Score	Contribution
Scene Conditions‑X	10 %	65	6.5
Evidence‑X	20 %	30	6.0
Witness & Family‑X	10 %	55	5.5
Digital Trace‑X	10 %	40	4.0
Timeline Integrity‑X	10 %	50	5.0
Victimology‑X	5 %	70	3.5
Offender Profile‑X	5 %	45	2.3
Search Effort‑X	10 %	70	7.0
Community Response‑X	10 %	80	8.0
Risk Profile‑X	10 %	60	6.0
TOTAL CLARITY	100 %	—	53.8

Scenario Likelihoods

Scenario	Probability	Primary Drivers
Lost / exposure	45 %	High Scene & Risk + no foul‑play evidence
Non‑parental abduction	25 %	Blind 15‑min window + cell‑tower anomaly
Familial foul play	20 %	12‑min timeline gap + statistical risk
Accident + cover‑up	10 %	Requires staged evidence, least supported

Key Analyst Focus: Harvest raw cell‑tower logs (30 Apr – 2 May) and align with Wi‑Fi handshake data to close the 18:43–18:55 gap.

2️⃣ Tier 2 — Engage & Share*

Headline: “Two Tiny Footsteps Into the Pines — Help Us #FindSullivans”

• 🗺️ Interactive Heat‑Map: Zoom into the latest search grid and suggest unexplored creek bends.

• 🚨 15‑Minute Mystery: Between 18:43 and 18:58 on 1 May, Lilly and Jack vanished. Any dash‑cam or trail‑cam footage? Upload it anonymously via our tip portal.

• 🐕 Rain‑Day Cadaver‑Dog Push: Next rainfall could unlock buried scent. Volunteers: sign up for the post‑rain search crew!

• 🎙️ Podcast Teaser: Forest tracker explains how fresh rain can resurrect scent trails — dropping tonight.

Takeaway: Lost/exposure sits at 45 %, but a mysterious cell‑tower ping means abduction (25 %) stays in play. Share our map, review your footage, and keep the pressure on.

(Probabilities auto‑update as new evidence shifts module scores.)